Michael Lemonick
It's been 13 years since the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a landmark report titled Global Burden of Disease, which forecast the most likely causes of death worldwide up to 2020. Now the WHO has come out with an update, based on the latest demographic data (from 2002) and reaching out until the year 2030. It's just been published in the online journal PLoS Medicine.
You can't predict the future with any certainty, of course, so the researchers played out three different scenarios, assuming optimistic, pessimistic and middle-of-the-road rates of economic development--a key in projecting disease and death rates.
Among the highlights: in all three scenarios, overall worldwide life expectancy should increase, overall mortality for kids under 5 and non-infectious diseases, including cancers and cardiovascular disease will increase as causes of death. That's partly because those illnesses tend to be consequences of higher incomes, and partly because infectious diseases will diminish (which also explains the drop in child mortality). One exception: AIDS, which will continue to grow as a killer. Even so, says the report, tobacco-related illnesses will cause half again as many deaths as AIDS by 2015.
Finally, the three leading killers worldwide by 2030: AIDS, heart disease and--a surprise--depression. That's true for all but the most optimistic of the three scenarios; if economic development is better than expected, then car accidents are likely to overtake heart disease for the #3 spot.
What it means: Public-health policy--what illnesses to tackle in order most effectively to keep people healthy longer--depends on knowing what the greatest risks are. This report helps public and private institutions figure out how best to allocate resources for future problems.
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It's been 13 years since the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a landmark report titled Global Burden of Disease, which forecast the most likely causes of death worldwide up to 2020. Now the WHO has come out with an update, based on the latest demographic data (from 2002) and reaching out until the year 2030. It's just been published in the online journal PLoS Medicine.
You can't predict the future with any certainty, of course, so the researchers played out three different scenarios, assuming optimistic, pessimistic and middle-of-the-road rates of economic development--a key in projecting disease and death rates.
Among the highlights: in all three scenarios, overall worldwide life expectancy should increase, overall mortality for kids under 5 and non-infectious diseases, including cancers and cardiovascular disease will increase as causes of death. That's partly because those illnesses tend to be consequences of higher incomes, and partly because infectious diseases will diminish (which also explains the drop in child mortality). One exception: AIDS, which will continue to grow as a killer. Even so, says the report, tobacco-related illnesses will cause half again as many deaths as AIDS by 2015.
Finally, the three leading killers worldwide by 2030: AIDS, heart disease and--a surprise--depression. That's true for all but the most optimistic of the three scenarios; if economic development is better than expected, then car accidents are likely to overtake heart disease for the #3 spot.
What it means: Public-health policy--what illnesses to tackle in order most effectively to keep people healthy longer--depends on knowing what the greatest risks are. This report helps public and private institutions figure out how best to allocate resources for future problems.
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